What Do You Think Will Happen?

By | September 22, 2009

Six real time business plays that in a few years time, with hindsight, will look like obvious successes or failures.

  1. Digital books. Will the Amazon Kindle (still to arrive in the UK) dominate? Or will Sony’s Reader do the business? Or will the iphone make (another) category jump and redefine a market category?
  2. iphone. If ever a product has disrupted a whole market this juicy Apple has. It has taken the smart phone away from its dowdy business image and created something completely different. It has forced Dell to enter the phone market, shaken Nokia up and forced Blackberry to accelerate its innovation pipeline. The interesting future speculation isn’t around whether iphone will win, but who else will be left standing.
  3. When will Tesco run out of steam? The challenges for any dominant incumbent are significant. Tesco is not growing at the pace of its main rivals in the UK and its dominance is creating some local backlash. Will it be able in reinvent itself again or will it become vulnerable to be split up?
  4. The entry of Best Buy into the UK consumer electronics market through its partnership with Carphone Warehouse will be interesting. Will it work? Will it force Currys/Dixons to make the required radical improvements to their propositions?
  5. The English Premier League business model. The amount of debt carried by the major clubs is not sustainable if they cannot qualify for the Champions League every season. Also, as UEFA develop new policies to attempt to level the playing field, these plutocratic owners will not be able to automatically buy advantage.
  6. Newspapers. Dead trees or bits and bytes? The historic cash cow of Classified and Display advertising is either disappearing or under real threat. People under the age of 28 are neither prepared to pay for a paper e.g. The Metro, or prefer to receive their news electronically. Newspapers are having to search for a new business model, and they are struggling to see it on-line. Rupert Murdoch has changed strategic direction again, giving notice that all News International on-line offerings must have a paid for component. Freemium content anyone?

As part of our Business Leader development we sometimes ask executives to develop their own market scoping ideas. This develops their point of view to inform their own business’ future direction. How developed is your 3-5 year view of your market-place? To discuss further, please contact us.

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